Cost of illness for colorectal cancer in Japan - a time trend and future projections (1996-2035) based on governmental statistics.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, the crude mortality rate of colorectal cancer is the second highest among men and highest among women by site. We aimed to calculate the social burden of colorectal cancer using the cost of illness (COI) method and identify the main factors that drove changes in the COI. METHODS: From 1996 to 2020, the COI was estimated by summing direct, morbidity, and mortality costs. In addition, the COI by 2035 was projected by fitting approximate curves obtained from historical data to health-related indicators by sex and age. Future projections of the number of patients by the stage of disease were also made to explore the factors that changed the COI. RESULTS: The number of deaths and incidence from colorectal cancer was expected to continue increasing due to population aging. However, the COI was projected to rise from 850.3 billion yen in 1996 to 1.451 trillion yen in 2020, and peaked at 1.478 trillion yen in 2023 before it declined. CONCLUSION: Although the increased number of deaths associated with population aging increased COI, it was expected that the COI would decrease around 2023 due to a decrease in the human capital value of the deceased. In addition, the mortality rate was expected to decrease in the future due to an increase in the percentage of early detection of colorectal cancer via widespread screening and advances in medical technology.

Involvement of methodological experts and the quality of clinical practice guidelines: a critical appraisal of clinical practice guidelines and a questionnaire survey of the development groups in Japan.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether the involvement of methodological experts improves the quality of clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) after adjusting for other factors. SETTING: The quality of Japanese CPGs published in 2011-2019 was assessed using the Appraisal of Guidelines, Research, and Evaluation (AGREE) II instrument. A questionnaire survey targeting CPG development groups was conducted through postal mail. PARTICIPANTS: 405 CPGs were retrieved from a Japanese CPG clearinghouse. Questionnaires were distributed to the 405 CPG development groups. Of the 178 respondents, 22 were excluded because of missing values. Finally, 156 participants representing their CPG development groups were included in the analysis. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: CPG quality was assessed using the AGREE II tool. The characteristics of CPGs, including publication year, development organisation, versions, number of members in the development group and involvement of methodological experts, were corrected from the description in the CPGs and the questionnaire survey. We performed multiple logistic regressions using the quality of CPGs as the dependent variable and the involvement of experts as the independent variable, adjusting for other possible factors. RESULTS: A total of 156 CPGs were included. Expert involvement was significantly associated with the AGREE II instrument scores in domains 1 (ß=0.207), 2 (ß=0.370), 3 (ß=0.413), 4 (ß=0.289), 5 (ß=0.375), 6 (ß=0.240) and overall (ß=0.344). CONCLUSION: This study revealed that the involvement of methodological experts in the CPG development process improves the quality of CPGs. The results suggest the importance of establishing a training and certification programme for experts and constructing expert referral systems that meet CPG developers' needs to improve the quality of CPGs.

Development and usability of a hospital standardized ADL ratio (HSAR) for elderly patients with cerebral infarction: a retrospective observational study using administrative claim data from 2012 to 2019 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Maintenance of activities of daily living (ADL) during acute hospitalization is an important treatment goal, especially for elderly inpatients with diseases that often leave disabilities, such as cerebral infarction. However, studies assessing risk-adjusted ADL changes are limited. In this study, we developed and calculated a hospital standardized ADL ratio (HSAR) using Japanese administrative claims data to measure the quality of hospitalization care for patients with cerebral infarction. METHODS: This study was designed as a retrospective observational study using the Japanese administrative claim data from 2012 to 2019. The data of all hospital admissions with a primary diagnosis of cerebral infarction (ICD-10, I63) were used. The HSAR was defined as the ratio of the observed number of ADL maintenance patients to the expected number of ADL maintenance patients multiplied by 100, and ratio of ADL maintenance patients was risk-adjusted using multivariable logistic regression analyses. The c-statistic was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the logistic models. Changes in HSARs in each consecutive period were assessed using Spearman's correlation coefficient. RESULTS: A total of 36,401 patients from 22 hospitals were included in this study. All variables used in the analyses were associated with ADL maintenance, and evaluations using the HSAR model showed predictive ability with c-statistics (area under the curve, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.88-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicated a need to support hospitals with a low HSAR because hospitals with high/low HSAR were likely to produce the same results in the subsequent periods. HSAR can be used as a new quality indicator of in-hospital care and may contribute to the assessment and improvement of the quality of care.

Difference in prioritization of patient safety interventions between experts and patient safety managers in Japan.

Although a variety of patient safety interventions have been implemented, prioritizing them in a limited resource environment is important. The intervention priorities of patient safety managers may differ from those of patient safety experts. This study aimed to clarify the difference in prioritization of interventions between experts and safety managers to better identify interventions that should be promoted in Japan. We performed a secondary data analysis of two surveys: the Delphi survey for Japanese experts and a nationwide questionnaire survey for safety managers in hospitals. Regarding the 32 interventions constituting 14 organizational-level and 18 clinical-level interventions examined in the previous studies, we assessed three correlations to examine the difference in prioritization between experts and safety managers: correlations between experts and safety managers in the three perspectives (contribution, dissemination, and priority), those between priorities of experts and safety managers at the clinical and organizational level, and those among the three perspectives in experts and safety managers. Contribution (r = 0.768) and dissemination (r = 0.689) of patient safety interventions evaluated by experts and safety managers were positively correlated, but priorities were not. Interventions with priorities that differed between experts and safety managers were identified. In experts, there was no significant correlation between contribution and priority or between dissemination and priority. For safety managers, contributions (r = 0.812) and dissemination (r = 0.691) were positively correlated with priority. Our results suggest that patient safety managers evaluated future priority based on past contributions and current dissemination, whereas experts evaluated future priority based on other factors, such as expected impacts in the future, as mentioned in the previous study. In health policymaking, promotion of patient safety interventions that were given high priority by experts, but low priority by safety managers, should be considered with possible incentives.

Social burden of three major diseases in Japan: A time trend and future projections using the comprehensive cost of illness method.

BACKGROUND: Three major diseases in Japan, cancer, heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) are the leading causes of death in Japan. This study aimed to clarify the social burden of these diseases, including long-term care (LTC), and to predict future trends. METHODS: The comprehensive cost of illness (C-COI), a modification of the cost of illness (COI), was used to estimate the social burden of the three major diseases in Japan. The C-COI can macroscopically estimate both direct and indirect costs, including the LTC. A new method for future projections of the C-COI was developed according to the method for future projections of the COI. All data sources were government statistics. RESULTS: The C-COI of cancer, heart diseases, and CVD in 2017 amounted to 11.0 trillion JPY, 5.3 trillion JPY, and 6.5 trillion JPY, respectively. The projected future C-COI in 2029 was 10.3 trillion JPY, 5.3 trillion JPY, and 4.4 trillion JPY, respectively. In 2029, the LTC costs accounted for 4.4%, 12.8%, and 44.1% of the total C-COI, respectively. Informal care costs are projected to be approximately 1.7 times higher, assuming that all family caregivers will be replaced by professional caregivers in 2029. CONCLUSION: Indirect costs for all three diseases were projected to decrease owing to aging of the patient. In contrast to the other two diseases, the LTC cost of CVD accounted for a large proportion of the burden. The burden of CVD is expected to decrease in the future, but informal care by older family caregivers is suggested to reach its limits. In the future, the focus of resource allocation should shift from medical care to LTC, especially support for family caregivers. A method of future projections for the social burden based on the C-COI was considered effective for identifying issues for healthcare policy in the context of the times.

Cost of illness in a super-aged society-comparison of breast, lung, and prostate cancer in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Aging increases the disease burden because of an increase in disease prevalence and mortality among older individuals. This could influence the perception of the social burden of different diseases and treatment prioritization within national healthcare services. Cancer is a disease with a high disease burden in Japan; however, the age-specific frequency and age-specific mortality rates differ according to site. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between the aging of the Japanese society and the disease burden by comparing the features of three cancers with different age-specific frequency rates in Japan. Furthermore, we made projections for the future to determine how the social burden of these cancers will change. METHODS: We calculated the social burden of breast, lung, and prostate cancers by adding the direct, morbidity, and mortality costs. Estimates were made using the cost of illness (COI) method. For future projections, approximate curves were fitted for mortality rate, number of hospital admissions per population, number of outpatient visits per population, and average length of hospital stay according to sex and age. RESULTS: The COI of breast, lung, and prostate cancers in 2017 was 903.7, 1,547.6, and 390.8 billion yen, respectively. Although the COI of breast and prostate cancers was projected to increase, that of lung cancer COI was expected to decrease. In 2017, the average age at death was 68.8, 76.8, and 80.7 years for breast, lung, and prostate cancers, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with breast cancer die earlier than those with other types of cancer. The COI of breast cancer ("young cancer") was projected to increase slightly because of an increase in mortality costs, whereas that of prostate cancer ("aged cancer") was projected to increase because of an increase in direct costs. The COI of lung cancer ("aging cancer") was expected to decrease in 2020, despite the increase in deaths, as the impact of the decrease in human capital value outweighed that of the increase in deaths. Our findings will help prioritize future policymaking, such as cancer control research grants.

Evaluating the Hospital Standardized Home-Transition Ratios for Cerebral Infarction in Japan: A Retrospective Observational Study from 2016 through 2020.

Discharge to home is considered appropriate as a treatment goal for diseases that often leave disabilities such as cerebral infarction. Previous studies showed differences in risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality and readmission rates; however, studies assessing the rate of hospital-to-home transition are limited. We developed and calculated the hospital standardized home-transition ratio (HSHR) using Japanese administrative claims data from 2016-2020 to measure the quality of in-hospital care for cerebral infarction. Overall, 24,529 inpatients at 35 hospitals were included. All variables used in the analyses were associated with transition to another hospital or facility for inpatients, and evaluation of the HSHR model showed good predictive ability with c-statistics (area under curve, 0.73 standard deviation; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.73). All HSHRs of each consecutive year were significantly correlated. HSHRs for cerebral infarction can be calculated using Japanese administrative claims data. It was found that there is a need for support for low HSHR hospitals because hospitals with high/low HSHR were likely to produce the same results in the following year. HSHRs can be used as a new quality indicator of in-hospital care and may contribute to assessing and improving the quality of care.

Hospital-level characteristics of the standardised mortality ratio for ischemic heart disease: a retrospective observational study using Japanese administrative claim data from 2012 to 2019.

Background: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide and imposes a heavy burden on patients. Previous studies have indicated that the optimal care for IHD during hospitalisation may reduce the risk of in-hospital mortality. The standardised mortality ratio (SMR) is an indicator for assessing the risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality ratio based on case-mix. This indicator can crucially identify hospitals that can be changed to improve patient safety and the quality of care. This study aimed to determine the hospital-level characteristics of the SMR for IHD in Japan. Methods: This study was designed as a retrospective observational study using the Japanese administrative claim data from 2012 to 2019. The data of all hospital admissions with a primary diagnosis of IHD (ICD-10, I20-I25) were used. Patients with complete variables data were included in this study. Hospitals with less than 200 IHD inpatients in each 2-year period were excluded. The SMR was defined as the ratio of the observed number of in-hospital deaths to the expected number of in-hospital deaths multiplied by 100.The observed number of in-hospital deaths was the sum of the actual number of in-hospital deaths at that hospital, and the expected number of in-hospital deaths was the sum of the probabilities of in-hospital deaths. Ratios of in-hospital mortality was risk-adjusted using multivariable logistic regression analyses. The c-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the logistic models. Changes in SMRs in each consecutive period were assessed using Spearman's correlation coefficient. Results: A total of 64,831 were admitted patients with IHD in 27 hospitals as complete submission data. The SMRs showed wide variation among hospitals, ranging from 35.4 to 197.6, and analysis models indicated good predictive ability with a c-statistic of 0.93 (95% CI [0.92-0.94]) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test of 0.30. The results of chi-square tests and t-tests for all variables to assess the association with in-hospital mortality were P < 0.001. In the analysis of trends in each consecutive period, the SMRs showed positive correlations. Conclusions: This study denoted that the SMRs for IHD could be calculated using Japanese administrative claim data. The SMR for IHD might contribute to the development of more appropriate benchmarking systems for hospitals to improve quality of care.

Trends in the development process of clinical practice guidelines: a questionnaire survey for the guideline development groups in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) are representative methods for promoting healthcare standardization and improving its quality. Previous studies on the CPG (published by 2006) development process in Japan reported that the involvement of experts and patients, efficient evidence collection and appraisal, and paucity of evidence on Japanese patients should be improved for the efficient CPG development. This study aimed to clarify the trends of CPG development process in Japan, focusing on the involvement of experts and patients, efficient evidence collection and appraisal, and paucity of Japanese evidence. METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted for CPG development groups to collect information on the development activities of the CPGs published from 2012 to 2019. These CPGs were identified from the Japanese guideline clearinghouse. The questionnaire included the questions on composing the group, securing funding sources, collecting and appraising the research evidence, and the difficulties in the CPG development process. The questionnaires were distributed to the chairpersons of the CPG development groups through postal mail from November 2020 to January 2021. Combining the data from the current survey with those of previous studies reporting the development process of CPGs published by 2011, we analyzed the trend in the CPG development process. RESULTS: Of the total 265 CPGs included in the analysis, 164 (response rate: 41.4%) were from the current survey and 101 (response rate: 44.5%) were from previous studies. Among these, 40 (15.1%) were published by 2005, 47 (17.7%) in 2006-2010, 77 (29.1%) in 2011-2015, and 101 (38.1%) in 2016-2019. The proportion of CPGs involving methodologists did not increase through the publication periods. The proportion of CPGs involving patients almost doubled from the first period (15.9%) to the fourth period (32.4%). The yield rates of the articles did not change through the publication periods. The difficulty in "Coping with the paucity of Japanese evidence" has been improving consistently (69.2% in the first period to 37.4% in the fourth period). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest the need for methodological improvement in the efficient collection and appraisal of evidence and in the system assigning experts to the CPG development groups.

Patient safety management systems and activities related to promoting voluntary in-hospital reporting and mandatory national-level reporting for patient safety issues: A cross-sectional study.

Both voluntary in-hospital reporting and mandatory national-level reporting systems for patient safety issues need to work well to develop a patient safety learning system that is effective in preventing the recurrence of adverse events. Some of the hospital systems and activities may increase voluntary in-hospital reporting and mandatory national-level reporting. This study aimed to identify the hospital systems and activities that increase voluntary in-hospital reporting and mandatory national-level reporting for patient safety issues. An anonymous mail survey of hospitals in Japan was conducted in 2017. The hospitals were selected by stratified random sampling according to number of beds. The survey examined the annual number of reported events in the voluntary in-hospital reporting system for patient safety and experience of reporting unexpected patient deaths possibly due to medical interventions to the mandatory national-level reporting system in the last 2 years. The relationship of the answer to the questions with the patient safety management systems and activities at each hospital was analyzed. The response rate was 18.8% (603/3,215). The number of in-hospital reports per bed was positively related to identifying events by referring complaints or questions of patients or family members, using root cause analysis for analyzing reported events, and developing manuals or case studies based on reported events, and negatively related to the unification and standardization of medical devices and equipment. The experience with mandatory national-level reporting of serious adverse events was positively related to identifying problematic cases by a person in charge of patient safety management from the in-hospital reporting system of complications and accidental symptoms. Enhanced feedback for reporters may promote voluntary in-hospital reporting of minor cases with low litigation risks. Developing an in-hospital mechanism that examines all serious complications and accidental symptoms may promote mandatory national-level reporting of serious adverse events with high litigation risks.

Characteristics and Trends of the Hospital Standardized Readmission Ratios for Pneumonia: A Retrospective Observational Study Using Japanese Administrative Claims Data from 2010 to 2018.

Previous studies indicated that optimal care for pneumonia during hospitalization might reduce the risk of in-hospital mortality and subsequent readmission. This study was a retrospective observational study using Japanese administrative claims data from April 2010 to March 2019. We analyzed data from 167,120 inpatients with pneumonia ≥15 years old in the benchmarking project managed by All Japan Hospital Association. Hospital-level risk-adjusted ratios of 30-day readmission for pneumonia were calculated using multivariable logistic regression analyses. The Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to assess the correlation in each consecutive period. In the analysis using complete 9-year data including 54,756 inpatients, the hospital standardized readmission ratios (HSRRs) showed wide variation among hospitals and improvement trend (r = -0.18, p = 0.03). In the analyses of trends in each consecutive period, the HSRRS were positively correlated between '2010-2012' and '2013-2015' (r = 0.255, p = 0.010), and '2013-2015' and '2016-2018' (r = 0.603, p < 0.001). This study denoted the HSRRs for pneumonia could be calculated using Japanese administrative claims data. The HSRRs significantly varied among hospitals with comparable case-mix, and could relatively evaluate the quality of preventing readmission including long-term trends. The HSRRs can be used as yet another measure to help improve quality of care over time if other indicators are examined in parallel.

The geographical maldistribution of obstetricians and gynecologists in Japan.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, there is a large geographical maldistribution of obstetricians/gynecologists, with a high proportion of females. This study seeks to clarify how the increase in the proportion of female physicians affects the geographical maldistribution of obstetrics/gynecologists. METHODS: Governmental data of the Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists between 1996 and 2016 were used. The Gini coefficient was used to measure the geographical maldistribution. We divided obstetricians/gynecologists into four groups based on age and gender: males under 40 years, females under 40 years, males aged 40 years and above, and females aged 40 years and above, and the time trend of the maldistribution and contribution of each group was evaluated. RESULTS: The maldistribution of obstetricians/gynecologists was found to be worse during the study period, with the Gini coefficient exceeding 0.400 in 2016. The contribution ratios of female physicians to the deterioration of geographical maldistribution have been increasing for those under 40 years and those aged 40 years and above. However, there was a continuous decrease in the Gini coefficient of the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in the contribution ratio of the female physician groups to the Gini coefficient in obstetrics/gynecology may be due to the increased weight of these groups. The Gini coefficients of the female groups were also found to be on a decline. Although this may be because the working environment for female physicians improved or more female physicians established their practice in previously underserved areas, such a notion needs to be investigated in a follow-up study.

Cost of illness of liver diseases in Japan.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Liver disease is characterized by the progression from hepatitis to cirrhosis, followed by liver cancer, i.e., a disease with a higher mortality rate as the disease progresses. To estimate the cost of illness (COI) of liver diseases, including viral hepatitis, cirrhosis, and liver cancer, and to determine the overall effect of expensive but effective direct-acting antivirals on the COI of liver diseases. PATIENTS OR MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using a COI method from available government statistics data, we estimated the economic burden at 3-year intervals from 2002 to 2017. RESULTS: The total COI of liver diseases was 1402 billion JPY in 2017. The COI of viral hepatitis, cirrhosis, and liver cancer showed a downward trend. Conversely, other liver diseases, including alcoholic liver disease and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), showed an upward trend. The COI of hepatitis C continued to decline despite a sharp increase in drug unit prices between 2014 and 2017. CONCLUSIONS: The COI of liver diseases in Japan has been decreasing for the past 15 years. In the future, a further reduction in patients with hepatitis C is expected, and even if the incidence of NASH and alcoholic liver disease increases, that of cirrhosis and liver cancer will likely continue to decrease.

Comparison of the cost of illness of primary liver cancer between Japan and Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Primary liver cancer (PLC) is the fifth and second leading cause of death in Japan and Taiwan, respectively. The aim of this study was to compare the economic burden of PLC between the two countries using the cost of illness (COI) method and identify the key factors causing the different trends in the economic burdens of PLC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We calculated the COI every 3 years using governmental statistics of both countries (1996-2014 data for Japan and 2002-2014 data for Taiwan). The COI was calculated by summing the direct costs, morbidity costs, and mortality costs. We compared the COIs of PLC in both countries at the USD-based cost. The average exchange rate during the targeted years was used to remove the impact of foreign exchange volatility. RESULTS: From 1996 to 2014, the COI exhibited downward and upward trends in Japan and Taiwan, respectively. In Japan, the COI in 2014 was 0.70 times the value in 1996, and in Taiwan, the COI in 2014 was 1.16 times greater than that in 1996. The mortality cost was the greatest contributor in both countries and had the largest contribution ratio to the COI increase in Japan. However, the direct cost in Taiwan had the largest contribution ratio to the COI decrease. CONCLUSIONS: To date, the COI of PLC in Japan has continuously decreased, whereas that in Taiwan has increased. Previous health policies and technological developments are thought to have accelerated the COI decrease in Japan and are expected to change the trend of COI of PLC, even in Taiwan.

Prioritization of patient safety health policies: Delphi survey using patient safety experts in Japan.

Various patient safety interventions have been implemented since the late 1990s, but their evaluation has been lacking. To obtain basic information for prioritizing patient safety interventions, this study aimed to extract high-priority interventions in Japan and to identify the factors that influence the setting of priority. Six perspectives (contribution, dissemination, impact, cost, urgency, and priority) on 42 patient safety interventions classified into 3 levels (system, organizational, and clinical) were evaluated by Japanese experts using the Delphi technique. We examined the relationships of the levels and the perspectives on interventions with the transition of the consensus state in rounds 1 and 3. After extracting the high-priority interventions, a chi-squared test was used to examine the relationship of the levels and the impact/cost ratio with high priority. Regression models were used to examine the influence of each perspective on priority. There was a significant relationship between the level of interventions and the transition of the consensus state (p = 0.033). System-level interventions had a low probability of achieving consensus. "Human resources interventions," "professional education and training," "medication management/reconciliation protocols," "pay-for performance (P4P) schemes and financing for safety," "digital technology solutions to improve safety," and "hand hygiene initiatives" were extracted as high-priority interventions. The level and the impact/cost ratio of interventions had no significant relationships with high priority. In the regression model, dissemination and impact had an influence on priority (ß = -0.628 and 0.941, respectively; adjusted R-squared = 0.646). The influence of impact and dissemination on the priority of interventions suggests that it is important to examine the dissemination degree and impact of interventions in each country for prioritizing interventions.

Capturing the trends in hospital standardized mortality ratios for pneumonia: a retrospective observational study in Japan (2010 to 2018).

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia has a high human toll and a substantial economic burden in developed countries like Japan, where the crude mortality rate was 77.7 per 100,000 people in 2017. As this trend is going to continue with increasing number of the elderly multi-morbid population in Japan; monitoring performance over time is a social need to alleviate the disease burden. The study objective was to determine the characteristics of hospital standardized mortality ratios (HSMRs) for pneumonia in Japan from 2010 to 2018 to describe this trend. METHODS: Data of the DPC (Diagnostic Procedures Combination) database were used, which is an administrative claims and discharge summary database for acute care in-patients in Japan. HSMRs were calculated using the actual and expected numbers of in-hospital deaths, the latter of which was calculated using logistic regression model, with a number of explanatory variables, e.g., age, sex, urgency of admission, mode of transportation, patient volume per month in each hospital, A-DROP score, and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). We constructed two HSMR models: a single-year model, which included hospitals with > 10 in-patients per month and, a 9-year model, which included those hospitals with complete 9-year data. Predictive accuracy of the logistic models was assessed using c-index (area under receiver operating curve). RESULTS: Total 230,372 patients were included for the analysis over the 9-year study period. Calculated HSMRs showed wide variation among hospitals. The proportion of hospitals with HSMR less than 100 increased from 36.4% in 2010 to 60.6% in 2018. Both models showed good predictive ability with a c-statistic of 0.762 for the 9-year model, and no less than 0.717 for the single-year model. CONCLUSION: This study denoted that HSMRs of pneumonia can be calculated using DPC data in Japan and revealed significant variations among hospitals with comparable case-mixes. Therefore, HSMR can be used as yet another measure to help improve quality of care over time if other indicators are examined in parallel and to get a clear picture of where hospitals excel and lack.

The structure of the quality of clinical practice guidelines with the items and overall assessment in AGREE II: a regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Appraisal of Guidelines for Research & Evaluation (AGREE) II has been widely used to evaluate the quality of clinical practice guidelines (CPGs). While the relationship between the overall assessment of CPGs and scores of six domains were reported in previous studies, the relationship between items constituting these domains and the overall assessment has not been analyzed. This study aims to investigate the relationship between the score of each item and the overall assessment and identify items that could influence the overall assessment. METHODS: All Japanese CPGs developed using the evidence-based medicine method and published from 2011 to 2015 were used. They were independently evaluated by three appraisers using AGREE II. The evaluation results were analyzed using regression analysis to evaluate the influence of 6 domains and 23 items on the overall assessment. RESULTS: A total of 206 CPGs were obtained. All domains and all items except one were significantly correlated to the overall assessment. Regression analysis revealed that Domain 3 (Rigour of Development), Domain 4 (Clarity of Presentation), Domain 5 (Applicability), and Domain 6 (Editorial Independence) had influence on the overall assessment. Additionally, four items of AGREE II, clear selection of evidence (Item 8), specific/unambiguous recommendations (Item 15), advice/tools for implementing recommendations (Item 19), and conflicts of interest (Item 22), significantly influenced the overall assessment and explained 72.1% of the variance. CONCLUSIONS: These four items may highlight the areas for improvement in developing CPGs.

Trends in hospital standardized mortality ratios for stroke in Japan between 2012 and 2016: a retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: Stroke is one of the leading causes of death and disability, and imposes a major healthcare burden. The aim of this study was to determine the characteristics of hospital standardized mortality ratios (HSMRs) for stroke in Japan for the year 2012-16 to describe the trend. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Data from the Japanese administrative database. PARTICIPANTS: All hospital admissions for stroke were identified from diagnostic procedures combination (DPC) database from 2012 to 2016. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: HSMR was calculated using the actual number of in-hospital deaths and expected deaths. To obtain the expected death number, a logistic regression model was developed to get the coefficient with a number of explanatory variables. Predictive accuracy of the logistic models was assessed using c-index and calibration was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: A total of 63 084 patients admitted for stroke from January 2012 to December 2016 were analyzed. HSMRs showed declining tendency over these 5 years, suggesting stroke-related mortality has been improving. While the HSMRs varied from year to year, a wide variation was also seen among the different hospitals in Japan. The proportion of hospitals with HSMR less than 100 increased from 41.0% in 2012 to 59.0% in 2016. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that HSMR can be calculated using DPC data and found wide variation in HSMR of stroke among hospitals in Japan and enabled us to image the trend. By examining these trends, facilities, authorities and provinces can initiate designs that will ultimately lead to an upgraded healthcare delivery system.

Quality assessment of clinical practice guidelines using the AGREE instrument in Japan: A time trend analysis.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) are representative methods for promoting the standardization of healthcare and improvement of its quality. Few studies have investigated changes in the quality of CPGs published in a country over time. Our aim was to investigate changes in the quality of CPGs over time in the context of the available infrastructure for CPG development, public interest in healthcare quality, and healthcare providers' responses to this interest. METHODS: All CPGs pertaining to evidence-based medicine (EBM) issued between 2000 and 2014 in Japan (n = 373) were evaluated using the Japanese version of the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE) I. Additionally, time trends in quality were analyzed. Using a cut-off point based on the publication year of CPG development literature, the evaluated CPGs were classified into those published until 2008 (pre-2008) and those published since 2009 (post-2008). Subsequently, we compared these groups in terms of 1) first edition CPGs and its second editions, and 2) patients' version of CPGs. RESULTS: Scores on all six domains of AGREE I improved each year. A comparison of the first- and second-edition of CPGs (n = 64) showed that scores on all domains improved significantly after revision. Significant improvement was observed in three domains (#2 stakeholder involvement, #3 rigor of development, and #4 clarity of presentation) in the pre-2008 group and in all domains in the post-2008 group. The comparison between the pre- and post-2008 groups in terms of CPGs for patients showed that the score increased in only one domain (#1 scope and purpose). CONCLUSIONS: The number of published CPGs has been increasing and the quality of CPGs, as assessed using the AGREE I instrument, has been improving. These changes seem to be influenced by improvements in social infrastructure, such as the publication of CPG development procedures, availability of CPG preparation methodology training, and increase in CPG-related skills.

Comprehensive cost of illness of dementia in Japan: a time trend analysis based on Japanese official statistics.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the chronological change in social burden of dementia in Japan for policy implications of appropriate resource allocation and quality improvement. DESIGN: National, population-based, observational study from 2002 to 2014. SETTING: Seven nationwide data sets from Japanese official statistics. METHOD: Comprehensive Cost of Illness method. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome variables included healthcare services, nursing care services, informal care (unpaid care offered by family and relatives), mortality cost and morbidity cost. RESULTS: The number of patients with dementia increased 2.50 times from 0.42 million in 2002 to 1.05 million in 2014. While the number of patients living in homes and communities increased by 3.22 times that of patients living in nursing care facilities increased by 1.42 times. The total social burden increased 2.06-2.27 times from JPY 1.84-2.42 to 3.79-5.51 trillion (JPY 1 trillion = US$ 100 billion). Regarding the total burden, the proportion of informal care provided increased from 36.6-51.9% to 37.7-57.2%. Furthermore, the proportion of primary caretakers aged ≥70 years increased from 27.6% to 37.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Owing to the promotion of 'Deinstitutionalization' (shift of nursing care site from in-facilities to in-home and in-community), 'Elderly care by the elderly,' and 'Earlier diagnosis of dementia,' the average cost per patient reduced by 0.82-0.91 times from JPY 4.37-5.77 to 3.60-5.24 million. Therefore, the management of informal care in a manner that does not exceed the acceptable limit of the patients' caretakers, while maintaining patient safety and quality of care, is imperative.